Fitaloon at MicroShaft

If you have little spare time this afternoon and evening why not join in an experiment to find out where Gordon has hidden the real bad news in his budget, oops sorry that should  of course be the budget of Alistair Darling.

The Conservatives are putting up all the documents this afternoon for you to peruse and to find the typical black holes that Labour puts into a budget and the hidden away major items they would rather you didn’t hear about.

Just pop along and download a few to see what Labour has done to our economy and what”gifts” they are giving to the public  before the election whilst hiding away the cuts under sub-heading paragraph 2000.

The Blue Blog » Crowdsourcing the Budget Response.

When Brown and Darling are  preparng their budget, they should pay heed to this document and note well what it says. Some choice advice and quotes for them to ponder. For the rest of us read it and weep at the state these utter f*ckwits have manged to get our country into.

First a quick review of what it said last year:

In its opinion of 10 March 2009, the Council summarised its assessment of the previous update of the convergence programme, covering the period 2008/09-2013/14, as follows. The Council considers “that the programme confirms a rapid deterioration in the United Kingdom’s budgetary position, which has strained the sustainability of UK public finances. The probably significantly weaker-than-envisaged macro-economic context in the near term carries the risk of a higher government deficit throughout the programme period.

Second a little tightening:

However, the rapid deterioration in public finances severely weakened the UK’s capacity to pursue a looser fiscal stance without compromising budgetary sustainability and calls for a rapid improvement in the budgetary position. In line with the exit strategy advocated by the Council, and with a view to correcting the excessive deficit by 2014/15 and returning to a sustainable public finance position, substantial fiscal tightening needs to be implemented from 2010/11 onwards.

Third a warning:

The update does not present a medium-term objective for the budgetary position that would bring public finances on a sustainable path. This is not in line with the requirements of the Stability and Growth Pact. The programme’s medium-term fiscal strategy is significantly less ambitious than recommended by the Council under Article 126(7) on 2 December 2009 and not in conformity with the recommendation to reduce the deficit to below 3% of GDP by 2014/15.

Fourth it could be worse:

The budgetary outcomes could turn out worse than projected in the programme over the whole period. The markedly favourable macroeconomic context envisaged in the programme carries risks for the fiscal projections in the programme.

Fifth another Warning:

The United Kingdom has also assumed substantial contingent liabilities as a result of its financial sector interventions. Under its Asset Protection Scheme, the government has agreed to insure banking sector assets amounting to almost 20% of GDP. While the extent to which the insured loans and investments are at risk of default is subject to high uncertainty, the scheme could result in a net cost for government, thereby reducing the pace of fiscal consolidation.

Sixth a However:

However, from 2011/12 onwards, the budgetary strategy is not consistent with the Council recommendations under Art. 126(7). In particular, even taken at face value the government deficit in 2014/15 – the deadline set in the December 2009 recommendation for the UK to correct its excessive deficit situation – is projected clearly above the 3% of GDP reference value (4.7% of GDP) and is furthermore subject to downside risks mentioned above.

Seventh a Footnote on our Unemployment Lies:

As regards the data requirements specified in the code of conduct for stability and convergence programmes, the programme has significant gaps in the provision of required and optional data.

To which the footnote is In particular, the lack of labour market data has significantly complicated the recalculation of output gaps according to the commonly agreed methodology.

Eighth a Conclusion:

The overall conclusion is that the fiscal strategy in the convergence programme is not sufficiently ambitious and needs to be significantly reinforced to be consistent with the Council recommendations under Article 126(7) TFEU of 2 December 2009. The combination of the operation of automatic stabilisers, falls in asset prices and the fiscal stimulus has provoked a major deterioration in UK public finances.

A joy to read this damning indictment of Brown and Economic Incompetence certainly isn’t. If Darling is forced by Brown to have a give-away Budget we will be on a course to Economic Madness.

2010-03-17_uk_recommendation_for_co_en.pdf (application/pdf Object).

As the Telegraph reports, the GDP for Q4 2009 was this morning actually revised DOWN, yes DOWN.

However because it was actually an increase of 0.3 % on the revised DOWN value of earlier quarters in  2009 it appeared to be going up.

Initially the ONS thought GDP was £315,845m, it was in fact £315,712m (of course this is still an estimate). This means  the GDP was re-estimated DOWN 133m.

Why did the headline figure say it was 0.3% up an increase from 0.1%, well it turns out that earlier quarters have been revised DOWN as well. So the GDP increased in percentage figures over Q3 2009.  It also means we were in an even deeper recession than was thought.

Confused read the article in the Telegraph that tells it much better than I can.

Of course all this leads us to reflect that this is yet again Brown trying to pull the wool over our eyes. Earlier on today I noted that Fraser Nelson in the Spectator was showing us how Gordon Brown was trying to confuse us over deficit an debt, now they are trying to show a decrease as an increase.

The last words in the Telegraph article also note why we need to consider what the next real set of figures will show.

And just to add to our worries, a brief examination of the GDP figures (which are now more than three-quarters complete, so are pretty reliable), much of the growth (such as it was) was provided by retail, by car manufacture and sales, and by government expenditutre. It doesn’t take an economic genius to realise that these are all reliant on artificial props from the government (VAT cut, car scrappage scheme, brought-forward state spending) which will soon be, or have already been, withdrawn.

No wonder Alistair Darling was reluctant to spend much time basking in the apparent glory of these figures this morning. They are, I would say, more bad news than good.

Methinks it is Time for a Change

Don’t be fooled: GDP was actually revised down – Telegraph Blogs.

After the interview, Mr Darling and his Treasury team accepted my offer to stay on for a few drinks. Over a glass of chablis and a bowl of Doritos, he chatted confidently about the task of reducing the United Kingdom’s unprecedented deficit. As we discussed the choice between lower spending and higher taxes, Miss Macleod’s BlackBerry was glowing like Chernobyl. The fallout had begun, yet the Chancellor seemed entirely unbothered.

Do read the whole article here. It is a masterpiece

A couple of other gems

The Prime Minister was able to deny that he had instructed anyone to undermine Mr Darling, because when attack dogs are trained for a task, they carry it out instinctively, without the need for direct commands. Mr Darling was savaged in an off-the-record briefing and the entire Lobby knows who was responsible.

gets down to the grist

Unlike the Prime Minister and his dwindling band of toadies, the Chancellor is not seeking to deny that ballooning deficits pose a threat to our ability to function as an independent democracy. He wants to cut the state’s overdraft before taxpayers start cutting their wrists.

and who is he talking about here

Mr Darling is at least keen to have a go; the Agents of Darkness would rather he didn’t.

and lastly and most directly

In desperation, dodgy directors try to hide the full extent of the horror in the vain hope of bluffing their way through. That is what Labour is doing to UK plc – and very soon its bluff will be called.

via Alistair Darling is a dead man talking, and he’s taking sweet revenge – Telegraph.

Consumer price index rises to 3.5% from 2.9% in last month

via PoliticsHome – All today’s politics in one place Consumer price index rises to 3.5% from 2.9% in last month | PoliticsHome | Breaking News.