Tim Collins: Afghanistan remains a worthy cause
Tim Collins writing in the Independent reckons that Afghanistan remains a worthy cause. He also reckons we are winning and whilst I would agree with him that we are winning the current battle, I doubt we are winning the longer term battle which is about who really controls Afghanistan.
Too much stead is currently being put upon the amount of money being spent on equipment and supplies for our Armed forces, be in no doubt, it is, and will never be be enough, but we are forgetting that the only way to long-lasting peace and suppression of terrorists in the area is to win over the local populations of both Afghanistan and the tribal regions in Pakistan. For too long we have played just the military role rather being on the ground amongst the civilians finding out what is truly happening in the area and who are the real power brokers.
He highlights what he calls a “Spectrum of Subversion” and describes it thus:
We know from experience from Northern Ireland, and now Iraq, that military solutions are ineffective in dealing with a largely a civil problem. It is better understood by what I characterise as a “spectrum of subversion”.
Violence is at the centre of the spectrum, the visible light. To the right is politics. To the left, and crucial to the extremely expensive business of violence and politics, is crime. It funds and underpins the rest of the spectrum. It supports and corrupts the political end of the spectrum simultaneously by funding campaigns and corrupting officials. To succeed there is a need to defeat the insurgency across the spectrum. That means tackling the crime that is the oxygen of subversion, taking control to drive the struggle into the political part of the spectrum by encouraging dialogue, rewarding political progress and making violence increasingly counterproductive.
So according to Tim we have three elements, Politics, Violence and Crime, now this may have been true in some struggles but what he misses is the religion factor. Religion is not politics, it is far and above that and the cause of more deaths, directly or indirectly, than almost anything else in history.
Religion is what makes the terrorist in Afghanistan more of a a problem than just mere money and power. It is the crucible for all the other elements in the complicated Afghan scenario, the one that is the game changer from it being just Tribal warfare, as was the case for the British in the 19th and early 20th Century and the Russians in the 70”s and 80′s, into a truly Global war where the mostly Christian West meets the Fanatical Jihadist. Now instead of just local men fighting against us we have a truly Global foe, who have a huge base of fanatics to draw on, many eagerly willing to give their lives for the cause. So whilst we may kill 20 or 50 of their forces for each one of ours, they will always have more to come and join them, this is why we will never really win militarily, all we can do is expect to win temporary reprieves until they restock their supply of fighters and come back to attack and disrupt again.
The only way to defeat this foe is a “Hearts and Minds” type of conflict, based upon a true understanding of the local situation, politics and internal conflicts, what we used to call Intelligence. This is something that has been singularly missing in Afghanistan and indeed Iraq, our Intelligence has been poor and as a result our decisions on who to back and what tactics to follow have been wrong. This is what General Templer said in Malaya in 1952:
The Answer lies not in pouring more troops into the jungle, but in the hearts and minds of the people.
The war must be fought so that those who are responsible for the victory are the civilians and the police with only the military as a supporting role. Until we have won the local people over we will not win the war, only when they are helping to drive out their foreign invaders can they, and us, contemplate winning.
Tim Collins: Afghanistan remains a worthy cause – Commentators, Opinion – The Independent.
